The 38thMove point of view

Big change, value to prove.

38thMove expects AI to change the built environment substantially. For a board, the question is where it will create value, what evidence justifies action, and how the organisation needs to change.

Explore the hypotheses ↓

Ten hypotheses · Five board questions

What I think. What I am testing.

These hypotheses set out how I think AI could change firms, work and competition. I test them against surveys, case studies and business performance. Evidence can support, narrow or overturn them. Each connects to a question for management and a decision for the board.

Board question 01

Where will AI create value for us?

The decision: agree which outcomes justify investment, and how benefits will be shared or retained.

HypothesisAI will let firms grow output faster than headcount. Mixed / partial

What the evidence covers: gains on single tasks; the effect on whole firms is still unclear.

My evidence read. Selected cases report faster work on specific tasks. Broad surveys of firms find much less evidence that productivity or jobs have actually changed. Faster drafting does not prove that finished, checked work takes less total effort.

Ask management. Which outputs are improving after checking and rework, and how much of the time saved turns into more delivery, better quality or lower cost?

What would change my view. Repeated gains in checked output per paid hour would strengthen this view. Widespread, sustained use without those gains would weaken it.

What the case evidence establishes →
HypothesisSome firms will sell reusable expertise, as well as hours. Insufficient

What the evidence covers: little evidence yet of clients paying for it.

My evidence read. Reusable workflows and knowledge systems offer a plausible route. Evidence that clients repeatedly buy these as services, and that providers retain the benefit, is still thin.

Ask management. Which capability could we sell repeatedly, what would the client pay for, and does the offer make money after delivery and support?

What would change my view. Repeat sales, clear client value and sustained provider margins would support the hypothesis. Continued reliance on hours, or unprofitable offers, would challenge it.

Where reported value still falls short →
HypothesisControl of key data, workflows or distribution will give firms more power to retain value. Insufficient

What the evidence covers: it is still unclear who keeps the savings.

My evidence read. Lower production costs could benefit the firm, its clients or its suppliers. The evidence does not yet show who will be able to hold on to prices. Owning data alone is no guarantee of an advantage.

Ask management. If production becomes cheaper, what protects our fee, client relationship and bargaining power? What happens if our supplier changes its terms?

What would change my view. Lasting margins and customers who find it hard to switch would support the view. Easy substitution, or competitors cutting prices until the gain is gone, would weaken it.

The limits of the current value evidence →

Board question 02

What evidence would justify scaling?

The decision: agree what management must demonstrate before expanding, changing or stopping an investment.

HypothesisFirms that can demonstrate control of AI-assisted work will be better able to scale it. Mixed / partial

What the evidence covers: the need for checks is clear; the advantage they bring is not.

My evidence read. Surveys and cases keep pointing to trust, skills and checking as obstacles. It is less clear how much better controls help firms use AI more widely or more profitably. Expensive checking can cancel out the gain.

Ask management. Who accepts the work and owns the risk? Can management demonstrate that the checks work, what they cost and when use must stop?

What would change my view. Repeatedly delivering accepted work with sensible, affordable checks would support the view. High checking costs, failed controls or stalled approvals would challenge it.

How to test before scaling →

Board question 03

What must change in the organisation?

The decision: select the workflows to redesign, give their owners authority, and set the conditions for scaling.

HypothesisAI will move from individual tools into shared firm capability. Supporting

What the evidence covers: real examples, but in specific workflows.

My evidence read. Named cases describe reusable engineering checks and connected company information, alongside surveys showing wider use. Arcadis engineers build and check technical-review workflows; Alston's supplier describes questions across six connected systems. These support the direction of change. Counts of users and queries do not show that most firms have made the change, or what it is worth.

Ask management. Where have individual experiments become a repeatable way of working across teams, with an owner, common information and accepted outputs?

What would change my view. Sustained use across projects would strengthen the view. Repeated failure to move beyond individuals using their own AI assistants would weaken it.

Use, depth and organisational readiness →
HypothesisFirms that redesign work around AI will build an advantage that lasts. Mixed / partial

What the evidence covers: firms are adopting at different speeds; a lasting advantage is unproven.

My evidence read. Readiness and adoption differ between firms. That is not yet evidence that AI has given some firms a lasting lead. Standard tools could also help slower adopters catch up.

Ask management. What should improve relative to comparable firms: delivery, quality, client retention or margin? Could competitors reproduce the gain easily?

What would change my view. Sustained outperformance linked to changed workflows would support the view. Rapid imitation or no retained benefit would challenge it.

What adoption differences can show →

Board question 04

How should we develop and deploy our people?

The decision: change roles, supervised learning and responsibility alongside the work.

HypothesisAI will remove junior learning opportunities faster than firms replace them. Mixed / partial

What the evidence covers: a real risk, but little evidence yet of the outcome.

My evidence read. Routine work may disappear before new ways of learning are in place. Other accounts describe shared checklists and AI-assisted access to project knowledge helping staff learn, including Hill & Wilkinson's supplier case. Neither shows the long-term effect on skills or careers in the built environment. The effect depends on how firms redesign supervised learning; junior job losses are not a settled outcome.

Ask management. Which tasks teach the judgement we will need in five years? If AI takes them over, where will people practise, receive feedback and earn responsibility?

What would change my view. Juniors becoming less ready to take responsibility would strengthen the concern. Better skills and careers under redesigned training would weaken it.

How people and responsibilities change →
HypothesisHuman value will shift towards framing problems, designing systems and owning decisions. Mixed / partial

What the evidence covers: how roles change is clearer than whether they are better rewarded.

My evidence read. In the cases, professionals still check the work and stay responsible for it. Some also describe people configuring reusable checks, choosing schedule-recovery actions and teaching or supervising machines. This shows how roles might change, but not that those roles are in higher demand or better paid. Parts of expert judgement can also be automated.

Ask management. Which decisions need accountable expertise, which tasks can move to AI, and what skills and authority will our people need?

What would change my view. Sustained changes in responsibilities and client demand would support the view. Little role change, or wider automation of those activities, would challenge it.

How work and roles fit together →

Board question 05

What could slow or stop us?

The decision: deal with what you depend on, and agree where AI can be used, where it must wait and where it is ruled out.

HypothesisProject and professional constraints will slow AI adoption, but will not stop it. Mixed / partial

What the evidence covers: firms adopt despite obstacles; the pace is less certain.

My evidence read. Surveys show use growing alongside readiness gaps; cases show adoption in particular workflows. Data, liability and physical delivery help explain the uneven pattern. This does not establish that every built-environment activity will lag other sectors.

Ask management. Which constraints actually bind in our work, and which could we remove? Are we using genuine delivery risks to guide investment or to defer it?

What would change my view. Repeated use despite friction supports the view. Rapid, widespread adoption without those constraints, or persistent failure to adopt, would challenge it.

Why the market is not moving as one →
HypothesisResistance over jobs, rights and infrastructure will change how AI is deployed. Insufficient

What the evidence covers: the direct effects are not yet tested.

My evidence read. Concern and corporate responses are visible in the wider AI debate. The evidence reviewed here is much weaker on whether they change built-environment deployment. Public concern alone does not stop a project.

Ask management. Whose agreement do we depend on? Where could workforce concerns, client rules, information rights or infrastructure consent change the plan?

What would change my view. Documented restrictions, delays or changed deployments would support the view. Repeated adoption with concerns resolved would narrow it.

Start with the challenge and constraints →

The evidence behind the ideas

How to judge these ideas

Each kind of evidence answers a different question. Together, they help us test the ideas above.

Surveys

Where AI use is spreading, what firms report and what holds them back. Check who answered and what they mean by “use”.

Read the survey evidence →

Cases and evidence cards

What people have reported or tested in particular tasks, and how the results were checked. These examples show possibilities, not gains every firm should expect.

Read what the cases show →

Business performance

Whether delivery, quality, revenue per person or margins improve over time. Look for other explanations too, such as price changes, acquisitions or market conditions.

Ask management: what improved, compared with what? Was the work good enough to use, who checked it, and what did it cost in full?

An announcement shows intent. Better performance shows a result. Neither, on its own, proves that AI made the difference.

From a view to a decision

Make the next decision testable.

A board should leave the discussion with a small number of priorities, accountable owners, measures of success and a date to review the evidence. Published research helps frame the choice; real work establishes what it is worth to your organisation.

These are 38thMove's working hypotheses and evidence judgements.